The Southwest Power Pool (SPP) regional transmission organization (RTO) serves nine states. They are responsible for ensuring the lights stay on for about 15 million people, but new regulations may put some of their customers in the dark. SPP, like every RTO, is facing a wide array of new EPA regulations.

In a July letter SPP wrote, ?EPA regulations could prevent reliable operation of the SPP RTO.? The Texas RTO, ERCOT, expressed similar concerns over the finalization of EPA?s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) rule, ?We fear that many of the coal plants in ERCOT will be forced to limit or shut down operations in order to maintain compliance with the new rule, possibly leading to inadequate operating reserve margins.?

It?s difficult to predict what will ensue if the roughly 30 major regulations are adopted by EPA in their current form so let?s take the ruling most prevalent to electricity rates ?the Utility Maximum Achieveable Control Technology (MACT) standards. This ruling is supposed to set emission control technology standards. In other words, the regulation would ensure power plants use the best available technology to reduce hazardous air pollutants (HAP).

The problem is, the proposed standards cannot be met. This isn?t because coal plants are outdated. Since 2001, about 40 generation units have been commissioned or are undergoing construction, yet none of these plants can live up to the proposed MACT rule. In fact, none of the new state of the art coal plants currently under construction will live up to the MACT standards.

Even more disconcerting is the timeline placed on utilities.  Electricity companies only have three years to come into compliance with these standards once the rule is finalized. Three years may sound like a long time, but on average it takes four years to retrofit a coal plant with scrubbers and other emission reducing technology.

Not surprisingly, the stringent regulation will result in thousands of megawatts going off the grid as old plants will be decommissioned. Even those with useable life left will be decommissioned simply to meet EPA rules. Overall about 433 units are in danger of being closed. That?s 56 GW or 18 percent of America?s total coal capacity.

Closures and mothballing will cost 54,151 direct jobs at a cost of about $17.8 billion annually. Overall, analysts predict an average rate hike of about 11.5 percent by 2016 depending on the region. Likewise, natural gas prices will surge by 17 percent that same year.

What will Americans gain from these higher electricity prices and loss of jobs? Almost nothing as the health benefits from the MACT rule are statistically undetectable, with cancer risk from exposure to HAPs increasing by .00001 percent.

The MACT rule is just one of the many regulations coming down the pipeline that will severly impair the ability of utilities to keep the lights on at a reasonable cost. If these EPA regulations stand everyone will be paying for it in the form of higher electricity prices and rolling blackouts, regardless of electric choice.