Electricity Rates Under Each Governor’s Term
Do electricity rates depend on who sits in the governor’s mansion? We analyzed residential electricity rate changes during each current governor’s tenure. The data reveals that geography, fuel mix, and federal policy matter far more than party affiliation—but the numbers are fascinating regardless.
Key Takeaways
Democratic Governors (24)
Republican Governors (26)
Important Context: Correlation ≠ Causation
Before drawing conclusions from this data, consider these critical factors:
- Governors have limited direct control over electricity rates. Rates are set by utilities and approved by state public utility commissions, which are often independently appointed.
- Geography is the dominant factor. States in the Northeast (where many governors are Democrats) have structurally higher rates due to fuel costs and infrastructure age—not politics.
- Federal policy affects all states. Natural gas prices, EPA regulations, IRA subsidies, and FERC rulings impact rates regardless of state leadership.
- Rate changes have long lead times. Infrastructure investments and fuel contracts made years earlier determine today’s rates. A governor who took office in 2023 inherited rate trajectories set in motion long before.
- Deregulated vs. regulated markets operate under fundamentally different pricing mechanisms that aren’t determined by the current governor.
This analysis is presented as an interesting lens on electricity data—not as evidence that one party delivers better energy outcomes than another.
States with the Largest Rate Increases
These ten states have seen the steepest residential electricity rate increases in the 2025–2026 period, regardless of political party.
| State | Governor | Party | Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | Gavin Newsom | D | 33.75¢ | +8.9% |
| New Jersey | Phil Murphy | D | 22.65¢ | +9.1% |
| Rhode Island | Dan McKee | D | 31.30¢ | +8.4% |
| New Hampshire | Kelly Ayotte | R | 27.39¢ | +7.3% |
| Maine | Janet Mills | D | 29.55¢ | +8.1% |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey | D | 31.51¢ | +7.7% |
| Hawaii | Josh Green | D | 39.89¢ | +7.5% |
| New York | Kathy Hochul | D | 27.07¢ | +7.1% |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont | D | 27.84¢ | +7.0% |
| Vermont | Phil Scott | R | 24.89¢ | +6.7% |
Eight of the top ten are in the Northeast, confirming that geography—not party—is the primary driver. The region’s constrained natural gas pipelines, aging infrastructure, and high renewable mandates create structural cost pressures that affect all states regardless of political leadership.
States with the Smallest Rate Increases
These states have managed to keep rate increases modest, typically due to abundant domestic fuel resources, newer infrastructure, or lower demand growth.
| State | Governor | Party | Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana | Jeff Landry | R | 12.44¢ | +1.8% |
| North Dakota | Kelly Armstrong | R | 12.87¢ | +2.0% |
| Idaho | Brad Little | R | 12.51¢ | +2.1% |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R | 13.32¢ | +2.3% |
| Tennessee | Bill Lee | R | 13.12¢ | +2.3% |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen | R | 13.19¢ | +2.4% |
| Missouri | Mike Kehoe | R | 13.01¢ | +2.5% |
| Iowa | Kim Reynolds | R | 13.54¢ | +2.6% |
| Mississippi | Tate Reeves | R | 14.53¢ | +2.7% |
| Utah | Spencer Cox | R | 13.75¢ | +2.7% |
All ten are Republican-governed states—but again, geography explains this better than politics. These are predominantly Southern, Plains, and Mountain West states with abundant domestic energy resources (natural gas, coal, hydro, wind), lower population density, newer grid infrastructure, and minimal pipeline congestion.
Party Averages: A Deeper Look
Democratic-governed states have a significantly higher average electricity rate (21.89¢ vs. 14.82¢) and slightly faster rate growth (+4.8% vs. +4.2%). But this gap is almost entirely explained by which states each party governs:
The Geography Factor
Democrats govern 9 of the 10 most expensive electricity states (Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maine, Connecticut, New York, New Hampshire is now R, Vermont is R). These are overwhelmingly coastal and northeastern states with structural cost disadvantages: island geography (HI), pipeline constraints (New England), high labor costs, aggressive climate policies, and aging infrastructure.
Republicans govern 9 of the 10 cheapest electricity states. These are predominantly interior states with abundant natural resources, lower cost structures, and newer infrastructure.
If you controlled for geography (comparing only northeastern states, or only southern states), the party gap in rate increases nearly disappears.
What Actually Drives State Electricity Rates
Our analysis confirms that the following factors have far greater explanatory power than gubernatorial party affiliation:
Frequently Asked Questions
Do Republican governors deliver lower electricity rates?
Republican-governed states do have lower average rates (14.82¢ vs. 21.89¢), but this is primarily because Republicans govern more interior and southern states with structural cost advantages: abundant domestic fuel, newer infrastructure, and lower labor costs. When controlling for geography, the party difference largely disappears.
Why are rates rising faster in Democratic states?
The slightly higher rate growth in Democratic states (+4.8% vs. +4.2%) reflects the concentration of Democratic governors in the Northeast, where constrained natural gas pipelines, ambitious climate mandates, and aging grid infrastructure create compounding cost pressures. These are geographic and policy realities that predate current governors.
How much control does a governor have over electricity rates?
Very limited direct control. Electricity rates are set by utilities and approved by state public utility commissions, which are often independently appointed. Governors can influence rates indirectly through energy policy, appointments to regulatory commissions, and support for infrastructure investment—but the effects typically take 5–10 years to materialize.
Does deregulation lower electricity rates?
The evidence is mixed. Deregulated states like Texas have seen competitive markets drive down generation costs, while deregulated states in New England still have high rates due to fuel constraints. Deregulation tends to increase consumer choice and can lower the generation portion of bills, but delivery charges (set by regulated utilities) are unaffected.
What is the cheapest state for electricity in 2026?
Louisiana has the lowest residential rate at 12.44¢/kWh, governed by Republican Jeff Landry. Louisiana benefits from abundant natural gas production, refining infrastructure, and relatively low demand growth—factors unrelated to the current governor’s policies.